Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 206070
Long Term: Down Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Z -9 @7:30 AM
The December corn slipped just below Monday’s low keeping the sideways/lower pattern intact. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see a close near unchanged, which would set us up for another directionless day tomorrow. Some analysts are still looking for a move down to $7.18, which I certainly wouldn’t rule out, but the market isn’t getting in a big hurry about it. The market is oversold and due for a bounce, but that has been the case for about a month, so be careful trying to pick a bottom.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 964
Long Term: Up Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -10 KC: Z-9 @7:30 AM
There was lightening in Garden City last night and this morning, but so far no precipitation. So, for those who were selling yesterday because of rain in the forecast, well, it hasn’t happened yet. The charts now suggest the market will be moving down to the bottom end of the trading range. $9.00 may provide some support in the December KW, but if it fails look for $8.85. The direction of the wheat the rest of the week could be impacted by the Egyptians and whether or not they buy US wheat this week.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 160413
Long Term: Down Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: X -25 @7:30 AM
The November soybeans still haven’t reached the $15.80 retracement level, but the market is getting closer. Yesterday’s failed rally didn’t impress the bears and we ended up with a new low for the move overnight. This break is attracting demand from the Chinese, but speculators don’t care. The talk is of better yields and harvest pressure. Plan on more sideways/lower trade.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the active December contract limit down. The sharp selloff has this weeks’ cash trade in a quandary, as feedlots scramble to adjust to the possible strong basis opportunities. Packer bids will likely drop several dollars below last weeks’ cash, while offers fall to $125 in the south. Overnight trade is seeing positive trade in the front months, with deferred contracts modestly lower. Outside influences are negative, with the Dollar higher and equities softer.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up
Opening Call : 20-40 Lower
Feeder cattle futures declined sharply along with the fats on Tuesday. Weaker cash trade on Monday appears to be the other catalyst for the break in the feeders. Closeout losses over the past two-three months appears to finally be taking its’ toll on the feeders. Overnight corn prices have fallen a full ten cents to new lows for the move. In spite of that, feeders remain lower on the session. Hedgers will be there to sell any decent rally effort in this market.
Source: Schwieterman Marketing, LLC, www.upthelimit.com , 620-275-4133