Schwieterman: Live cattle futures closed modestly lower on Thursday
on September 13th, 2012 at 11:52 amCorn Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 227643
Long Term: Down Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: Z +6 @7:15 AM
The December corn closed at the top of the range yesterday and has seen follow through strength overnight, but the market is still well below the 50-day moving average resistance at $7.89. The market is oversold and due for a corrective bounce, but it will at least take a move through the $7.85 area to get technical traders to turn bullish. Outside markets are supportive, but going into a harvest weekend could provide selling pressure. Plan on choppy trade.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 16236
Long Term: Up Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +15 KC: Z+14 @7:15 AM
The wheat is the upside leader so far today. The December KW is at the highest level in a month and testing the upper bounds of the trading range we have been stuck in since July. The bulls will need to see the gains hold today, but right now it looks like the market is setting up for a move to $11.50. Buy breaks in the wheat.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 199234
Long Term: Up Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: X +9 @7:15 AM
The soybeans seemed to have taken the day off yesterday, but were back in action overnight. The November contract took out the $17.50 resistance overnight and should be headed for a test of the highs and $18.00 very soon. The export pace is unsustainable and the market must move higher to slow demand. That is all there is to it.
Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed modestly lower on Thursday, reversing early strength as profit taking from the recent rally set in. new hedge activity was also seen, as producers took advantage of the new highs in the Dec-Apr time frame. Overnight saw more of the same, with modestly lower trade across the board. Cash trade is mostly done for the week, with remaining show lists priced $128 in the south and near $200 in the beef up north. Weekly beef exports were solid, with 16,800 tons sold.
Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures posted new highs for the move in early trade on Thursday, before reversing to close moderately lower as corn moved to a higher settlement. Overnight trade has been two sided in the feeders, with corn prices firming to as much as 9 cents higher. The weak Dollar is likely to provide support for corn and live cattle, which leaves feeders in a tug of war over near term direction.
Source: Schwieterman Marketing, LLC, www.upthelimit.com , 620-275-4133